INDIA HAS, in recent weeks, formally hosted two senior
leaders from Bangladesh
- both from the opposition parties. First it was the country's former ruler HM
Ershad and then the former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia, who was hosted for
a whole week. Both met top Indian leaders and expressed satisfaction after the
discussions. These discussions may not solve any of the bilateral issues that
were discussed - but India's
hosting of two opposition figures from Bangladesh at this juncture seems to
be significant.
In Dhaka, the
political class puts this down to "serious doubts" in the Indian
establishment about the ruling Awami League's chances of coming back to power.
Since democracy returned to Bangladesh after the ouster of Ershad's military regime,
the Awami League and the BNP has turns, winning elections every five years. So
a change of guard next year may not surprise anyone, except those who feel the
Awami League's massive mandate in December 2008 may have helped it consolidate
its position in a nation that was largely frustrated with Islamist excesses,
murderous vindictive politics and rotten governance. That has not happened -
and for various reasons. Poor leadership, corruptions scams, the needless spat
with micro-credit guru Mohammed Yunus - and much more.
But some say the Awami League has been badly let
down by India,
after all it has done for its large neighbour. In a country where agriculture
is still the occupation of most, water is an emotive issue. India's failure
to deliver on the Teesta Water Sharing Treaty has hit Hasina's government below
the belt. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was forced to back off on the issue due
to the sudden opposition of West Bengal chief
minister Mamata Banerjee. This has become a national embarrassment for Singh
and India
- but it has become favourite ammunition for attacking Hasina back home.
The same is true about the much-awaited, but the
much-delayed, Land Boundary Agreement involving the exchange of enclaves.
Those who follow India's murky coalition politics may appreciate why Singh's
hands are somewhat tied, but most in Bangladesh, specially those who gun for
the Awami League, have a huge issue to run down the party as an "Indian
stooge" that has got nothing for all it has done for India.
The present Awami League government has gone after
Islamic radicals and separatist rebels from northeast India with a
vengeance after it came to power. Most of the top guns of the northeastern
insurgency, except the ULFA's elusive military wing chief Paresh Barua who
perhaps fled Bangladesh
at the right time, have been nabbed and handed over to the Indian authorities.
Some of these leaders have been forced to start dialogues with Delhi after announcing ceasefires.
Bangladesh's
security services have started massive operations against Pakistan-engineered
operations to use Bangladesh
for pushing in huge quantities of Indian counterfeit currency. Hasina's
government is also ready to concede to most Indian demands from transit to use
of Chittagong port - all that augurs well for India's
northeast. But in diplomacy, one has to get something to be able to give
something. This is where Hasina has been left high and dry and that, in no
small measure, is contributing to the possible erosion of the Awami League's
popularity.
As a major regional power, it is natural for India to
anticipate a change of guard in a neighbouring country and prepare for it. But
why not do it discreetly? The way Begum Zia and Ershad were hosted in Delhi has only convinced Bangladeshis that India has written
off the Awami League's chances in the next parliament polls and so is preparing
for the inevitable. It was natural for a trusted ally like Hasina to expect a
payback from India,
Teesta et al, in the run-up to her poll campaign. The last thing she could
have bargained for are the current signals from Delhi
that India
is preparing to change sides if she does not win.
First published in The Hindustan Times, November 18,
2012
Subir Bhaumik, a veteran journalist, is a Senior
Fellow with the Kolkata-based Centre for Study in International Relations and Development
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