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Thursday, March 14, 2024

Bangladesh climate crisis may dent SDG objectives

SALEEM SAMAD

Bangladesh is, of course, on the critical list to face the climate crisis. The Global Climate Risk Index 2021 ranks Bangladesh as the seventh most extreme disaster-prone country in the world.

The country, at the confluence of the yawning rivers Padma, Meghna, and the Brahmaputra, creates a delta, with accumulated sand and silt spilling into the Bay of Bengal.

Coastal Bangladesh will always remain prone to natural disasters and annual monsoon river flooding, vulnerable to livelihood.

Thus, the densely populated, low-lying regions are one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to disasters and climate change. Every year, an estimated 3.5 million people in Bangladesh are at risk of river flooding due to rising sea levels and increasingly intense monsoons.

The vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate risks has brought into focus the delicate balance between its pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the multifaceted impacts of global warming.

The SDGs and their determined achievement in several categories of goals will be severely dented due to climate risk and global warming.

Often argued by planners and policymakers that the Arctic is thousands of miles away from Bangladesh, melting polar ice caps may not harm the region much, as predicted by climate scientists for the last few decades.

While the immediate repercussions are visible in the Polar regions, the Arctic is experiencing unprecedented warming, losing its sea ice and snow cover at an alarming rate, several research stations have found.

Dr. Hossain Zillur Rahman, a leading development economist, said that the dramatic achievements in human development and infrastructure development may cause irreparable damage to the glorious economic triumphs.

The melting Greenland Ice Sheet in the Arctic, Bangladesh's deltaic nation will have vast stretches of land barely above sea level, which impacts sea level rise, heightening risks of coastal inundation, salinity intrusion, and land loss, writes The Arctic Risk Platform.

Professor Ainun Nishat, a water resource and climate change specialist and a professor emeritus at BRAC University, said that the implications would be profound during climatic extremes.

From displacing millions to threatening food and water security, the Arctic’s warming disrupts the monsoon systems, and Bangladesh grapples with erratic rainfall patterns, leading to extended droughts and devastating floods, he remarked.

Dr Rahman, a policymaker who led the team to develop the poverty reduction strategy of the government, said the SDGs serve as a beacon for Bangladesh’s developmental aspirations; they are deeply intertwined with the nation’s socioeconomic fabric.

He said the infrastructure, which forms the backbone of developmental ambitions, is likely to face vulnerabilities due to climate-induced damages, potentially isolating communities and hindering economic progress.

Bangladesh’s determination to march towards the SDGs is rendered more intricate by the indirect yet profound influences of Arctic warming, including the accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which significantly contributes to rising sea levels, posing an even greater challenge to the nation’s development.

Extensive research on socioeconomic implications needs to be undertaken to understand the impact on Bangladesh’s SDG journey and the impact of climate risk, said Dr Rahman, the founder of a research institute, Power Participation and Research Centre.

He describes how critical infrastructures, including roads, schools, and health facilities, are threatened by the rising waters and intensified weather extremes.

Presently, 90 per cent of Bangladesh’s electricity grid is at risk from strong cyclonic winds exceeding 30 meters per second.

Looking ahead to 2050, over 65 per cent of electricity substations and 67 per cent of power plants could face potential climate-related hazards. Due to climate change, the road and rail network in Bangladesh will bear the brunt of climate change.

These may include more frequent flooding and erosion, greater wear and tear from extreme weather, increased obstructions from debris after cyclones and storm surges, and salinity impacts in coastal areas, said Professor Nishat.

Agriculture is a vital lifeline for a substantial portion of Bangladesh’s population, but it faces increasing threats from unpredictable weather and rising salinity levels.

In Bangladesh, 70 per cent of the land is allocated to agriculture, employing 48 per cent of the population.

Climate-related events not only impact food security but also place significant strain on livelihoods, casting doubts on the nation’s progress toward achieving SDG targets of ‘no poverty’ and ‘zero hunger.’

Current estimates indicate that only in the agricultural sector in Bangladesh may incur an annual loss of approximately USD 7.7 billion (BDT 84,588.27 crore) due to climate change.

Within two decades, the country’s average annual rice production could decline by 33 percent due to climate vulnerability, according to Global Climate Risks, a research outfit based in the United Kingdom.

Agriculture has a central role in Bangladesh’s economy and will face challenges originating from erratic monsoons, extreme weather events, and salinity intrusion, affecting both food security and countless livelihoods, said Prof. Nishat.

In Bangladesh, repeated climatic shocks are hindering access to education, health, and opportunities, and posing significant barriers to SDGs related to health, education, and well-being.

The nation’s human capital, its most valuable asset, confronts threats from climate change that, when amplified by Arctic warming, can potentially erode its developmental milestones.

A growing number of Bangladeshi children have had to permanently end their education when they migrate to urban slums in the wake of climate disasters. Around 1.7 million children in Bangladesh are labourers, and one in four of them is 11 years old or younger, according to UNICEF.

Bangladesh’s pursuit of the SDGs is frankly linked with the distant echoes of the Arctic’s warming, cautions Dr. Rahman.

Bangladesh policymakers and politicians must adopt strategies accordingly to face the daunting challenges supposedly caused by climate extremes.

Bangladesh certainly can still develop strategies and plan for a harmonious balance between sustainable growth and the ever-shifting climate landscape, observed Global Climate Risks.

First published in The Daily Messenger, Dhaka, Bangladesh, 14 March 2024

Saleem Samad is Deputy Editor of The Daily Messenger. An award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Tuesday, March 05, 2024

Japan to tie landlocked Northeast India with Bangladesh

SALEEM SAMAD

Hopes for the Red Sun finally glimmer lights over landlocked northeast India and plans to connect with landlocked states with Bangladesh, which has been deemed as geostrategic significance to Japan.

Japan after the brutal Second World War has developed several proven friends of South Asia and is edging closer to Bangladesh and India for socio-economic development.

Many think tanks say Japan has enlarged its diplomatic vision in a bid to counter the economic hegemony of China, which has set its eyes towards South Asia.

Well, Japan has been a major donor and development partner since the war-ravaged Bangladesh, 52 years ago and has a strategic understanding of the region and the Bay of Bengal.

Against the backdrop of huge Japanese investment in the country recently being outsmarted by China, particularly after the launch of Beijing’s controversial Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and half of South Asia including Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka are signatories of the mega plan to revitalise the ancient silk roads to the heart of the world.

A series of top Japanese official's visits to New Delhi, Guwahati (Assam), Agartala (Tripura) and Dhaka come against the background of Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) Vision.

These developments in conjunction with initiatives like the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) and regressive naval exercises jointly by the United States, Japan and Australia in the disputed South China Sea off the Philippines in response to a recent show of Chinese aggression in the disputed waters.

Japan wants her physical presence in the Bay of Bengal. As Nikkei Asia writes, Bangladesh's ambitious deep-sea port promises a strategic anchor for Japan and India.

A mega seaport under construction is shaping up to be a strategic linchpin for Japan and India as the Quad partners aim to counter Chinese influence.

Development of the gigantic port of Matarbari will put a Japan-backed facility just north of Sonadia, another prime location on the Bay of Bengal where China proposed to develop another port. The Chinese project never materialised, and Dhaka reportedly dropped the idea, reports Nikkei Asia.

A mega deep-sea port at Matarbari, in southeast Bangladesh waters is underway and is expected in 2027, the complex will take a major load off of the country's main Chattogram (formerly Chittagong) port and a trade gateway for northeast India, which would be less than 100 kilometres to the massive port facility.

Whatever the geopolitical strategy, the deep-sea port project has the potential to improve regional trade ties, boost investment, create jobs, and support infrastructural development, spurring economic growth for Bangladesh, Northeast India, Nepal, and Bhutan, as well as the surrounding countries along the Bay of Bengal.

Earlier regional studies suggested both Bangladesh and Northeast India need to scale up their multi-modal connectivity, which would not only help the region to raise its competitiveness but also narrow long-standing regional development gaps.

The connectivity will bring synergy in trade facilitation, and build express corridors for the trans-shipment and transit of goods from northeast India to Bangladesh port in Chattogram.

Currently, nearly 350 Japanese companies are operating in Bangladesh, with more than $380 million in combined investment.

Japanese investment in Bangladesh has reached USD 123 million in 2022. Japan and India are two major export destinations in Asia where Bangladesh's export earnings reached $2 billion, said a top official Ministry of Commerce.

Japan has proposed developing an industrial hub in Bangladesh with supply chains to the landlocked northeast states of India, Nepal and Bhutan beyond by developing a port and connectivity in the region.

Improve connectivity in the region through the Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt (BIG-B) initiative, Japan plans to build road connectivity in the Indian states of Assam, Mizoram, and Tripura to connect to the seaport in the Bay of Bengal.

Calling India an ‘indispensable partner’, after Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida listed three important regions — Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Pacific Islands — where multi-layered connectivity could overcome vulnerabilities and boost economic growth, writes Fumiko Yamada, a Research Associate at the University of Melbourne, Australia.

The comprehensive collaboration among Bangladesh, India and Japan provides the blocked-in northeast with access to the Bay and access to ASEAN countries, which plays a crucial role in unleashing the enormous potential for growth and prosperity based on better access to the Indian Ocean, becomes crucial for the improvement of people’s lives of the northeast region, opines Ishita Singh Bedi of Amity University in India.

The Red Sun has plans to build a Bengal–Northeast India industrial value chain in cooperation with India and Bangladesh to foster growth in the region.

Earlier in 2019, the Government of Japan invested 205.784 billion Yen, equivalent to approximately BDT 152 billion in several ongoing and new projects in different states of India’s northeast region. None of the projects would be sustainable unless the connectivity with Bangladesh is augmented to rip huge economic benefits.

Regarding port development, Japan could hardly ask for a better spot than Matarbari — a natural gateway to South and Southeast Asia. Tripura state, around 100 kilometres from the proposed seaport, might serve as a gateway for regional exporters, Bedi writes.

Japanese Prime Minister’s FOIP vision focused particularly on emerging economies and developing countries in the Indo-Pacific region and territories vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters.

It comes after Japanese Prime Minister Kishida visited India last March, where he touted the idea of a new industrial hub for the Bay of Bengal and northeast India that could bolster development in the impoverished region of 300 million people.

After Kishida visited India, Japan approved $1.27 billion in funding to Bangladesh for three infrastructure projects - including an enormous commercial port in the Bay, which will be equivalent to the Port of Colombo in Sri Lanka or the Singapore Port in terms of water depths, said a JICA official in charge of the project.

India and Japan have a comprehensive economic partnership, with trade worth $20.57 billion in 2021-2022. Of this volume, India imported Japanese goods worth $14.49 billion, reported Reuters.

The FOIP and new mega project investment further solidified when Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina visited Tokyo and held an official parley with Kishida in late April.

With infrastructure projects set to be completed over a five to ten-year horizon, the proposal for joint discussions on investment promotion, customs, and tariffs will set the stage for an economic boom in India’s northeast.

India, Japan, and Bangladesh need to create a mechanism to discuss three key stumbling blocks to regional investment: tariffs, customs procedures, and connectivity. India and Bangladesh are negotiating a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) that is expected to boost bilateral trade.

First published in The Daily Messenger, 5 March 2014

Saleem Samad is Deputy Editor of The Daily Messenger and an award-winning journalist. An Ashoka Fellow and recipient of the Hellman-Hammett Award. Email: saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Sunday, March 03, 2024

Bangladesh can be a game changer for northeast India


SALEEM SAMAD

Landlocked northeast Indian states do not have easy access to cost-effective seaports.

Imports and exports of northeast Indian states are very time-consuming, loaded with frustration, and most importantly, the high cost of transportation.

Politicians, business bodies and state governments of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim and Tripura underscores boosting connectivity, transit and trade with Bangladesh and through Bangladesh territory, which is expected to be a game changer for the northeast.

They have realised that connectivity with Bangladesh to access the ports is vital to economic growth and rapid industrialisation in the landlocked region.

Bangladesh ports to ease northeast trading

The connectivity projects have gained momentum after Bangladesh allowed the use of its Chattogram and Mongla ports and transit facilities to India’s northeastern states.

The road distance between Kolkata and northeastern states is more than 1,200 km, while Chattogram and Mongla ports are located at almost half the distance.

Recently, Tripura Chief Minister Manik Saha said Tripura will be the gateway to southeast countries by using Chattogram Port in Bangladesh, which will substantially reduce the time and costs associated with transporting goods to the northeastern states.

Bangladesh has already allowed India to use its Chattogram Port through South Tripura's Sabroom sub-division. The Maitri Setu (bridge) built on the Feni River has already been inaugurated for transportation and passengers through the bridge.

Once the bridge is operational, Tripura will have direct access to Chattogram Port and will widen new possibilities in business and trade.

Saha said, that not only South East Asian (SEA) nations, Tripura will have access to many countries by using Chattogram Port on the Bay of Bengal.

Saha also highlighted the Indo-Bangladesh railway project connecting Bangladesh's Gangasagar station with Agartala railway station.

Agartala-Kolkata train via Padma Bridge in 10 hours

Union Minister of State for Social Justice and Social Empowerment, Pratima Bhoumik, said the Indo-Bangladesh rail link will be a game changer once the connectivity is operational.

The 32-hour train journey from Agartala to Kolkata through Bangladesh will be completed in 10 hours. It will boost trade, business, investment, and people's movement in the northeastern state into the heart of India, she added

Dhaka-Delhi relation enhances connectivity

Dhaka and New Delhi have been closely cooperating in implementing numerous bilateral and sub-regional rail, road, and waterway initiatives.

In recent years, the two countries have launched several bus, train and air services, opened immigration checkposts and upgraded border infrastructure boosting bilateral ties and enhancing trade and connectivity.

In a significant development in November 2023, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Indian counterpart Narendra Modi jointly inaugurated three New Delhi-assisted infrastructure development projects including the Agartala-Akhaura cross-border rail link and Khulna-Mongla rail line through video conferencing.

Earlier, External Affairs Minister Dr Subramanyam Jaishankar noted that five operational bus services, three cross-border passenger train services and two inland waterway routes are facilitating greater trade and people-to-people contacts, which are integral parts of India’s broader engagement with South Asian neighbours.

After the Indo-Pakistan 1965 war, six decades ago the river transportation began to connect Rajshahi to Murshdabad in February. A cargo vessel carrying two tonnes of cotton departed from Sultanganj port to Maya port in Murshidabad.

Similarly, the first cargo vessel sailed from Kolkata in the first week of August 2022 carrying 16 tons of iron pipes in a container via Mongla Port with destination Meghalaya using the Tamabil-Dawki border points and 8.5 tons of pre-foam in another container for Assam using the Bibir Bazar-Srimantapur border points.

Once the official protocols are completed, the passenger ships will soon connect Dhaka with Kolkata.

The four northeastern states, namely, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram share a 1,879 km-long border with Bangladesh and India has sought transit facilities through the neighbouring country for the transportation of goods to and from these states.

In August 2022, the Union Minister of Development of North Eastern Region (DoNER) G Kishan Reddy told the Lok Sabha (parliament) that enhancing comprehensive connectivity between India and Bangladesh through the northeast was crucial for strengthening bilateral ties and significant progress has been made in recent years.

During a parley between Hasina and DoNER Minister Reddy in September 2022, in New Delhi, the Bangladesh government proposed that the chief ministers of the seven northeastern states could visit Dhaka for a sharing meeting for enhancing cooperation in connectivity, trade and security.

Reports say the union government accepted the proposal in principle, and, work is underway to decide on a suitable time for the visit which will involve coordinating the schedules of seven chief ministers.

Unfortunately, the grand meeting of the Chief Ministers of northeastern states did not materialise for the coronavirus pandemic and national elections in Bangladesh.

Awami League's commitment

The ruling Awami League government of Sheikh Hasina is keen on engaging northeastern states to expand trade, connectivity, and people-to-people ties with Bangladesh.

The AL leaders have pointed out that Hasina decided on principle to grant transit facilities to India’s land-locked northeastern states in 2015, when her government was facing severe political instability in the country, and this demonstrated her firm conviction in forging friendly ties with India.

The AL leaders maintain that Prime Minister Hasina has taken a big political risk and steadily cemented Bangladesh’s ties with India.

In a major development in April 2023, Bangladesh’s National Board of Revenue (NBR) granted permission to transport goods from one Indian state to another using the country’s key ports under a bilateral agreement signed in October 2018.

The NBR issued the permanent standing order to use Chattogram and Mongla seaports for transit and transhipment to carry goods to and from India through Bangladesh’s territory following the completion of trial runs for the operationalization and regular movement of goods.

India has extended three Lines of Credit (LoCs) amounting to $7.35 billion over the last 12 years for the development of infrastructure in various sectors, according to Dr. Rupak Bhattacharjee, an independent public and foreign policy analyst.

Exploring riverine routes for trade

Bangladesh and India have plans to develop an Eastern Grid with 5,000 km of navigable waterways connecting neighbouring countries including Bangladesh.

Both countries believe that the development of this grid will accelerate development but will further deepen eastern India’s trade with Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Nepal (BBIN) Motor Vehicle Agreement (MVA) initiative.

With the seamless connection between National Waterway (NW)-1 (Ganges), NW-2 (Brahmaputra) and NW-16 (Barak), India is keen to create an economic corridor linking the northeast with the rest of India via Bangladesh.

During the September 2022 bilateral summit, the prime ministers of India and Bangladesh directed their respective officials to work together to address the issues of pollution in rivers and to improve the riverine environment and river navigability concerning common rivers.

Bangladesh has decided to dredge in the old Brahmaputra River for the restoration of its dry season flow, which will enable navigation through the Brahmaputra will vastly improve and reduce the 116 km distance in the Indo-Bangladesh Protocol Route.

Road connectivity with northeast

Dr Bhattacharjee writes, that the Bangladesh government has initiated 42 infrastructure development projects under Indian LoCs, of which 14 have been completed, and the remaining 28 projects are at various stages of implementation till February 2023.

The construction and timely maintenance of high-quality roads capable of taking ever-increasing loads of passengers and goods, the building of modern, user-friendly river ports for ensuring safe and easy navigation and the development of a multimodal logistics hub are key components of India’s overall framework of cooperation with Bangladesh on the connectivity front.

The ongoing four-lane project, which is expected to be operational by June 2026, will connect the Sylhet-Chattogram National Highway as well as the Ashuganj river port and Akhaura land port.

The approved routes include transportation to Dawki in Meghalaya via Tamabil in Sylhet, Sutarkandi in Assam via Sheola, and Srimantapur in Tripura via Bibir Bazar in Cumilla, as well as the reverse directions. Cargo originating from India and arriving at Chattogram and Mongla ports can be directed to Agartala, through Akhaura in Bangladesh will reach the northeastern states quickly.

Delays in fund disbursement

However, reports suggest that the Cumilla-Brahmanbaria road project is progressing slowly due to delays in loan disbursement.

Similarly, the Benapole-Jashore-Narail-Bhatipara-Bhanga road project is facing funding issues.

The Ashuganj-Sarail-Dharkar-Akhaura road project is also moving slowly due to a cash flow problem of the Indian contractor.

Both the Benapole-Bhanga and Ashuganj-Akhaura road projects have been taken up to improve cross-border connectivity between India and Bangladesh and need to be fast-tracked.

The delay in the execution of various projects has led to cost escalation. For example, the cost of the Ashuganj inland container river port project will increase by 10 to 15 per cent.

The Bangladesh government’s Economic Relations Division has noted that some slow-moving projects including the Bay Container Terminal Project at Chattogram Port (with a $400 million loan) and the Saidpur Airport Project have to be reviewed.

Air connectivity with northeast

India has greenlit four new air routes that connect the country's northeastern states with international destinations, including Dhaka and Chattogram, under a project for improving regional air connectivity called "Udan".

Officials of the Indian civil aviation ministry said fares on these routes – Guwahati-Bangkok, Guwahati-Dhaka, Imphal-Mandalay and Agartala-Chattogram – will be subsidised by the state governments of Assam, Manipur and Tripura to facilitate air travel.

Guwahati is all set to get its first international flight under the International Air Connectivity Scheme (IACS) Guwahati-Dhaka flight from 1st July. The northeastern passengers on their onward journey to the Gulf, South-East Asia and European destinations will have lesser layovers during transit in Dhaka and Chattogram.

The article first appeared in The Daily Mesenger, Dhaka, Bangladesh, 3 March 2024

Saleem Samad is Deputy Editor of The Daily Messenger and an award-winning journalist. An Ashoka Fellow and recipient of the Hellman-Hammett Award. Email: saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Thursday, February 29, 2024

Myanmar junta crackdowns on non-committal youths

SALEEM SAMAD

Scores of youths have been arrested in Mandalay, the second-largest city in Myanmar after Yangon, since the junta activated the conscription law early this month, according to news pouring in from war-torn Myanmar.

More than 80 people have been arrested by government soldiers since the second week of February in Chanmyathazi, Maha Aungmyay, and Aungmyaythazan townships in Mandalay, according to Myanmar’s dissident news media, The Irrawaddy.

Combined forces of junta soldiers, police, ward administration officials, and militia members have been taking headcounts and checking households for overnight guests in Mandalay since mid-February.

Migrants working in Mandalay or internally displaced people (IDPs) living in the town were arrested as junta troops searched houses, teashops, and restaurants in the ward on Sunday, allegedly to check for unregistered guests during the day as well as at night.

Streets in Mandalay have become almost deserted after evening hours following the activation of the conscription law and reports that young people are being abducted.

Unverified reports on Myanmar social media say abductions by the army have already begun, while potential conscripts speculate that bribery will be the only way to avoid being conscripted.

The national conscription law was implemented on February 10 by Min Aung Hlaing, a Myanmar army general who has ruled Myanmar as the chairman of the State Administration Council since seizing power in the February 2021 coup d'état. He additionally appointed himself Prime Minister in August 2021.

On the other hand, the regime has asked students to join the University Training Corps (UTC), which acts as a reserve for the military’s depleted ranks.

Junta newspapers boast that many generals, including regime boss Hlaing, were former UTC members.

Under the Conscription Law, students can defer service, but the regime wants students to join the UTC to recruit them as reserves in the meantime.

The first UTC was formed in 1922 at Rangoon University under colonial rule. It was modelled on the British Army’s University Officer’s Training Corps, which aims to recruit educated officers and expose civilians who will become future employers to aspects of military life.

There are three days of training a week during the academic year with a camp every October.

Junta newspaper The Global New Light of Myanmar said the UTCs are commanded by the Directorate of Militias and Border Guard Forces, providing students with four years of training.

University staff and UTC students were quoted by junta newspapers saying the organization teaches basic skills and explains what the military does to protect the country.

In the wake of the 2021 coup, the regime revived a colonial-era law that allows authorities to conduct warrantless searches of private homes and requires all residents to register overnight houseguests. Previously, such searches were mainly conducted at night. But junta troops are also searching households in Mandalay during the day.

Myanmar’s military is aiming to recruit 5,000 able-bodied fighters every month from April under a conscription order, Myanmar watch groups say, revealing its weakness.

Meanwhile, junta soldiers are extorting money from people whom they detain under the pretext of overnight guest registration. The detainees are released after payment is made.

However, pro-junta Telegram channels claim that the young men detained are members of the anti-junta People’s Defence Force and that they possess weapons.

Fighters from the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) have a message for compatriots who have not yet directly supported their resistance against the junta but are now at risk of being pulled into the violent chaos that has engulfed the country since the 2021 coup.

This comes as a coalition of ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy rebels across the country has inflicted heavy losses on government forces, in a counteroffensive that poses an unprecedented – and possibly existential – threat to the Tatmadaw, as Myanmar’s vicious military is known, reports the South China Morning Post.

Reports from Yangon (formerly Rangoon) show queues of hundreds at the Thailand embassy as people seek a legal way out, while hundreds of mainly young men have been detained after sneaking over the border into Thailand to escape the draft – a warning of the potential for a larger exodus ahead.

Thailand, a country that does not have an asylum system for the protection of refugees, is under pressure to consider formalising entry ahead of the expected influx, writes SCMP.

Earlier in January, China brokered the Myanmar ceasefire, urging the junta and rebel militia to ‘exercise maximum restraint’. ‘The two sides agreed to an immediate ceasefire,’ the Chinese foreign ministry claimed, while pledging a continued ‘constructive role’ from Beijing.

The junta and rebel Three Brotherhood Alliance held two days of talks in the Chinese city of Kunming, the ministry spokeswoman reveals.

In another story on Al Jazeera, Myanmar’s military regime has admitted it is facing “heavy assaults” by anti-coup forces who began a coordinated offensive at the end of last month, claiming to have taken control of several towns in border areas and dozens of military outposts.

Spokesperson Zaw Min Tun told Al Jazeera that troops were under “heavy assaults from a significant number of armed rebel soldiers” in Shan State in the north, Kayah State in the east, and Rakhine State in the west.

Anti-coup fighters are using “hundreds” of drones to drop bombs on military posts, and some sites have had to be evacuated, he added.

Myanmar was plunged into crisis when the generals seized power from the elected government of civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi in a coup in February 2021.

First published in The Daily Messenger, 29 February 2024

Saleem Samad is Deputy Editor of The Daily Messenger and an award-winning journalist. An Ashoka Fellow and recipient of the Hellman-Hammett Award. Email: saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Sunday, February 25, 2024

Myanmar junta forcefully recruiting Rohingya to fight rebels


SALEEM SAMAD

Myanmar’s regime is accelerating its effort to recruit up to 50,000 personnel per year to replenish its armed forces under the reinforced Conscription Law.

Several media outlets have recently reported in independent and pro-resistance Myanmar media on the forcible recruitment of young men in urban areas.

Military junta chief Min Aung Hlaing activated, for the first time in a decade, a conscription law amid heavy regime casualties and desertions.

Following the announcement, the regime formed a central committee led by the Defence Minister to conscript over-18s into military service. Those who fail to comply face three to five years in prison.

The committee announced the formation of branches in each state and region to implement the law, led by the chief minister with the deputy regional military commander as the vice-chair.

The conscription branches will be established in rural areas and townships. The recruitment process will start in April, regime spokesman Major General Zaw Min Tun said.

The spokesman said around 6 million men and 7 million women were eligible for compulsory military service, according to the 2019 census.

He said 5,000 people will be called up each month and given training, with around 50,000 recruited per year. The conscription is not intended for only one, two, three, or four years and will be eligible for service for two years.

The junta also activated a Reserve Forces Law, allowing it to send veterans back to the front line. Under the law, all former military personnel must serve in the reserve forces for five years starting from the day they resigned or retired.

Conscription has sparked fear and anger among eligible citizens who have been called on to defend the junta that has brutalised them for three years.

It has also been criticised for legalising the junta’s practice of rounding up civilians for use as porters or human shields.

Desertions and defections plague Myanmar troops

The military government's forces have been stretched thin by the recent upsurge in resistance activity. They were already believed to be depleted by casualties, desertions, and defections, though there are no reliable numbers regarding their scale.

The army faces two enemies: the pro-democracy forces formed after the army takeover and better-trained and equipped ethnic minority armed groups that have been battling for greater autonomy for decades.

There are alliances between the resistance groups, as reported by the pro-rebel newspaper The Irrawaddy.

In September of last year, the Defense Ministry of the National Unity Government (NUG), the leading political organisation of the resistance that acts as a shadow government, stated that more than 14,000 troops have defected from the military since the 2021 seizure of power.

The military seized power and ousted the elected government headed by Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi on February 1, 2021. She has been kept in home custody to serve prison sentences for election fraud and other trumped-up charges.

Forced recruitment of Rohingyas

Myanmar’s military is forcibly recruiting Rohingya men from villages and camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Rakhine State, and it is feared they will be used as human shields, activists, and residents of the state warn.

Sittwe, the state capital of Rakhine State, has 13 IDP camps for about 100,000 Rohingya people who were displaced by ethnic and religious violence in the western state in 2012.

At least 400 Rohingya men have already been forcibly recruited from villages and IDP camps after Rohingya community leaders and administrators were pressured to compile lists of at least 50 men for each small IDP village and at least 100 for each IDP camp in three Rakhine townships – Buthidaung, Maungdaw, and Sittwe.

The junta is offering freedom of movement to Rohingya Muslims restricted to IDP camps as part of a bid to entice them into military service amid the nationwide rollout of a conscription law.

Junta forces have told Rohingya men that if they serve in the military, each one will receive a sack of rice, a citizenship identity card, and a monthly salary of 150,000 kyats (US$ 41), Rohingya residents of Rakhine State and activists stated.

Since taking the census on Monday, junta officers have repeatedly visited the camp, trying to persuade Rohingya residents to serve in the military with an offer of free movement within Kyaukphyu township, said another camp resident.

However, the conscription law only applies to Myanmar citizens, but the citizenship of Rohingya people has been scrapped after a draconian Citizenship Law of 1982 requires individuals to prove that their ancestors lived in Myanmar before 1823 and refuses to recognize Rohingya Muslims as one of the nation's ethnic groups or list their language as a national language.

Despite the compulsory military training schedule to begin in April, junta troops arrested at least 100 men from four villages in Buthidaung Township on 18 and 19 February, and they were transferred to a nearby military base for basic military training.

Nay San Lwin, co-founder of the Free Rohingya Coalition, describes that two weeks of training would make them vulnerable either to be captured or killed on the battlefront by the battle-hardened Arakan Army (AA) rebels fighting the military junta for more than a decade. Lwin said the junta’s military will use the Rohingya foot soldiers as human shields and porters.

Rohingya to defend IDP villages

Junta troops informed Rohingya community leaders that the AA had established armed fortified camps near the Rohingya villages and that residents would have to undergo military training to defend their villages.

The junta’s troops, who are fighting the AA, know the terrain of Rakhine State better than the AA does and have public support.

Since November, the military has surrendered Pauktaw, Minbya, Mrauk-U, Kyauktaw, Myay Pon, and Taung Pyo townships in Rakhine state.

The capital of Rakhine State, Sittwe, is besieged by government troops. Civil administration officials and their families have been evacuated to safe places by commercial flights, while other officials have been shifted by Naval vessels.

Rights campaigners fear that drafting Rohingya into military service could stoke ethnic tensions in Rakhine state, while legal experts argue that the drive is unlawful, given that Myanmar has refused to recognize the Rohingya as one of the country’s ethnic groups and denied them citizenship for decades.

An estimated 1.2 million ethnic Rohingya refugees have been languishing in squalid camps in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, since 2017 after fleeing the genocide committed by Myanmar military forces.

Another 630,000 living within Rakhine State are designated stateless by the United Nations, including those who languish in camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs) and are restricted from moving freely within Rakhine state.

First published in The Daily Messenger, 25 February 2024

Saleem Samad is Deputy Editor of The Daily Messenger and an award-winning journalist. An Ashoka Fellow and recipient of the Hellman-Hammett Award. Email: saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad


Friday, February 23, 2024

The fractured state of Myanmar

Myamnar rebels gains ground - Photo: Public Domain 

SALEEM SAMAD

If anybody reads Myanmar's state-run daily newspaper, the Global New Light of Myanmar, the oldest English Daily which covers news, the state Myanmar Radio and Television (MRTV), one would not fathom the crisis faced by the Myanmar government.

News coming in from dissidents, journalists and media activists inside Myanmar rebel-held regions gives diametrically opposite news, which is not comfortable for the military junta in the capital, Naypyidaw.

The rebels are upbeat when they could make the government troops withdraw from northern Rakhine State after the onslaught of the rebel Arakan Army (AA).

The AA is one of the three ethnic armies in the Brotherhood Alliance, which launched Operation 1027 against the Myanmar military dictator, which ousted an elected government of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, ending a 10-year experiment with democracy and plunging the Southeast Asian nation into bloody turmoil.

Armed insurgencies by the People's Defence Force (PDF) of the National Unity Government (NUG) have erupted throughout Myanmar in response to the military government's crackdown on anti-coup protests.

As of February 7, 2024, at least 6,337 civilians, including children, have been killed by the junta forces and 21,000 arrested.

Meanwhile, pictures and videos surfaced on social media and several other websites of the rebels, indicating that they have taken control of six towns in Rakhine State—Pauktaw, Kyauktaw, Minbya, Mrauk-U, Taungpyoletwe and Myebon—and one in Chin State, Paletwa.

The government soldiers, in retaliation, are attacking civilians in the south. The Rohingyas in the north of Rakhine State have also taken the brunt and fled from their settlement.

The guards of the Rohingya settlements have long abandoned their checkposts and the ethnic community has scattered for safety and security.

Unfortunately, the Arakan Army is equally not so kind to them. The Rohingya forced them to flee towards the coasts of the Naf River, with advice to cross into Bangladesh.

They are asked to join their relatives and neighbours living in squalid refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar.

Intensified patrols and vigilance of Bangladesh Border Guards (BGB) and Coast Guards have discouraged them from crossing the river, which borders Bangladesh with Myanmar.

Several sources in Ukhiya in Cox’s Bazar and Ghumdhum in Bandarban have indicated that some Rohingya, after taking dangerous journeys through the hill forests, have trekked into the camps.

Officials working with international NGOs have confirmed the incidents of some illegal migration and have been sheltered in the camps by relatives mostly.

The NGO officials declined to be named and said they are not expecting a huge or even moderate influx of Rohingya people, as the borders are sealed.

The refugee leaders and camp leaders are reviewing the situation across the border into Rakhine State. They are in touch with scores of Rohingyas who are living in extreme difficulties.

The Home boss and Chief of BGB have reiterated that they will not allow a single Rohingya to enter Bangladeshi territory under any circumstances.

UN Special Rapporteur on Myanmar

On the other end of the world, Myanmar’s ruling military junta has “doubled down” on civilian attacks while showing signs of becoming “increasingly desperate” by imposing military service, the UN special rapporteur UN’s Tom Andrews said at Geneva on Wednesday.

“While wounded and increasingly desperate, the Myanmar military junta remains extremely dangerous,” the UN’s Tom Andrews said in a statement.

Earlier this month, the conscription law, the junta was trying to justify and expand its pattern of forced recruitment.

The junta faces widespread armed opposition to its rule three years after seizing power from an elected civilian government and has recently suffered a series of stunning losses to an armed alliance of ethnic minority groups.

Junta Families Evacuated

On last Saturday, a naval vessel reportedly carrying family members of the junta and police personnel was seen departing from Maday Island, where the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port project is located.

Earlier, on February 15 and 16, the family members were evacuated from Ma Ei town by helicopter. Later the soldiers and police personnel were seen leaving Ma Ei police station in military vehicles.

Following the Arakan Army's capture of many towns after the conflicts erupted in Ramree, Taungup and Kyaukphyu localities, the military regime relocated their family members to Kyaukphyu, Thandwe and Ann localities. Later, the officer’s families were shifted to Yangon.

Sittwe Braced for Street Fight

Fighting continued in northern and southern Rakhine State since the AA launched an offensive against Myanmar’s junta in mid-November last year.

The AA has seized Mrauk-U, Minbya, Kyauktaw and Pauktaw towns and Paletwa in southern Chin State, along with numerous junta bases and border outposts. Only Sittwe remains to be occupied by AA.

The AA has urged the government’s Regional Operations Command in the state capital, Sittwe, to surrender. Sittwe is the junta’s administrative seat in Rakhine.

The junta forces are systematically fortifying their defence arrangements in Sittwe. They have obstructed the access of roads and even destroyed many bridges to obstruct AA advancements.

Civil administrative officials and residents have left Sittwe in fear for their lives during the street battle. Many residents cannot afford to leave and there is no way out from Sittwe if fighting breaks out.

Commodities and fuels in Sittwe are running low since the roads were blocked. Shops are selling off their stocks as they are in a hurry to leave the city.

Despite the night curfew in Sittwe, the hospitals and clinics are still operational, but the city is in panic.

The Brotherhood Alliance warned civilians of the rising danger of landmines in Rakhine State, saying the junta’s military is placing landmines around its outposts and bases there.

Nervous Junta

Junta troops arrested around 600 civilians after their flights from Yangon landed at two airports in Sittwe and Kyaukphyu city in Rakhine state, according to family members, who said the military is holding them on suspicion of attempting to join the armed rebels.

The arrests come amid the enactment of a conscription law that has sent draft-eligible civilians fleeing from Myanmar’s cities, saying they would rather leave the country or join anti-junta forces in remote border areas than fight for the military.

India-Myanmar Military Forge Ties

Myanmar Tatmadaw and the Indian Armed Forces to forge friendly ties and further cooperation.

The Vice-Chairman of the State Administration Council Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services Commander-in-Chief (Army) Vice-Senior General Soe Win held parleys with an India Army delegation led by Lt-Gen Harjeet Singh Sahi, the General Officer Commanding III Corps of the Indian Armed Forces, at the capital Naypyidaw on Wednesday, according to the official daily The Global New Light of Myanmar.

They cordialy discussed friendly relations between Myanmar and India and the two armed forces and promotion of further cooperation, and plans to cooperate in peace and stability, security and development at the border regions between the two countries.

First published in The Daily Mesenger, 23 February 2024

Saleem Samad, is Deputy Editor of The Daily Messenger, an award-winning independent journalist, and recipient of the Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at <saleemsamad@hotmail.com>; Twitter (X) @saleemsamad

Wednesday, February 21, 2024

21st February: International Mother Language Day

 

SALEEM SAMAD

The International Mother Language Day (IMLD) on 21st February is observed worldwide to promote cultural diversity, linguistics and multilingualism, In Bangladesh, the day is observed as National Language Martyrs Day.

UNESCO announced the IMLD on 17 November 1999. It was officially recognised in 2008 under the United Nations General Assembly’s resolution.

Unfortunately, due to globalisation just over 40% of the 6,000 or so languages spoken in the world today are endangered and only a few hundred languages have a place in educational systems.

Every two weeks a language disappears — taking with it an entire cultural and intellectual heritage.

Two Bangladesh-born activists Rafiqul Islam and Abdus Salam live in Vancouver, Canada wrote a letter to Kofi Annan, then Secretary General of the United Nations on 9 January 1998 urging him to take steps to save the world's languages from extinction by declaring an International Mother Language Day. The duo proposed the date as 21 February to commemorate the language martyrs of 1952 in Dhaka.

Pakistan Legislative Assembly in 1948 in the capital city Karachi (later the capital moved to Islamabad) adopted Urdu as the official language with an overwhelming voice vote.

The people of East Bengal (now Bangladesh) demanded that Bangla, the language spoken in Bangladesh should also be recognised as an official language.

It was very odd, that Urdu was never the mother tongue of Pakistan. The four provinces of Pakistan – Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, North West Frontier Province (renamed Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) and East Bengal (now Bangladesh) had separate mother languages for centuries.

Urdu was spoken only by political elites of the Pakistan Muslim League and elites of Pakistan. Mohammad Ali Jinnah, the founder of Pakistan negotiated a separate nation for Muslims of India from the British Raj and other political elites spoke Urdu.

In 1948, a year after the birth of Pakistan, declared Urdu to be the national language of the nascent state.

The elected members from East Bengal of the Pakistan constituent assembly vehemently protested in the house. But the voice was too feeble to make them heard in the assembly.

Promptly, the political leaders, youths and students in Bangladesh protested loudly. The news of the stubborn Pakistan politician's refusal to accept another state language picked up momentum among all strata of the society. The country plunged into country-wide unrest.

On 21 February 1952, the angry student decided to march towards the East Bengal Legislative Assembly in Dhaka in demand Bangla should also be an official national language.

Hundreds of students marched with banners and placards enroute to the provincial assembly hall – located on the Dhaka University campus was barricaded by armed police.

The civil administration imposed a ban on rallies and street protests. The students attempted to march through the barricade – police fired live bullets at the demonstrators. Five protesters were shot and killed and hundreds more were wounded.

The news of police firing sparked wildfires all over the country. Hundreds of students and political leaders were arrested for protesting the police firing and demanding recognition of Bangla as a national language of Pakistan.

Finally, Bangla was recognised as one of the state languages of Pakistan at a session of newly elected members of the United Front to the National Assembly on 9 May 1954.

The Bangla language created a nation-state – from East Bengal to East Pakistan and now to present Bangladesh.

After 1952, the people of Bangladesh were frustrated with the attitude of the elite politicians of Pakistan who deliberately adopted a policy to alienate people living in the eastern province of Pakistan.

The citizens of Pakistan looked down on the people of the eastern region as a low-caste Bangalee (Bangla-speaking population). Visible marginalisation in higher education, jobs in civil administration and recruitment in Pakistan's armed forces. The people in Bangladesh felt they were deliberately discriminated against.

Moreover, the administration of the eastern province was dominated by people in civil administration, judiciary, police and military who were transferred from Pakistan, and they spoke Urdu, a language alien to the local people.

The simmering dissent in East Bengal, treated as a colony of Pakistan and governed by political and military elites from the capital Islamabad for 2.5 decades erupted in a mass protest in 1969.

The IMLD has also made an impact in Bangladesh. The 50 different Adivasis (national ethnic communities) were now able to study their languages in schools in remote hill forests.

To conclude the United Nations on IMLD says: Languages are the most powerful instruments of preserving and developing our tangible and intangible heritage. When one language vanishes, a part of the world’s rich tapestry of cultural diversity also disappears.

First published in The Daily Messenger, 21 February 2024

Saleem Samad is Deputy Editor of The Daily Messenger, an award-winning independent journalist, and recipient of the Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at <saleemsamad@hotmail.com>; Twitter (X) @saleemsamad


Thursday, February 15, 2024

China's dam on the Brahmaputra to threaten Bangladesh, India


SALEEM SAMAD

China secretly building the world's biggest dam over the mighty Brahmaputra River which is likely to jeopardise the ecology, environment and morphology.

If the mega project goes through will immensely cause hardship for several million people in downstream India, and of course Bangladesh.

China's $1.5 billion dam over Brahmaputra, known as Zangmu Hydropower Station, has raised serious concerns in Bangladesh and India.

China did not consult with the two neighbouring countries, which is mandatory according to the Helsinki Rules on the Uses of the Waters of International Rivers is an international guideline regulating how rivers and their connected ground waters that cross national boundaries may be used, adopted by the International Law Association (ILA) in Helsinki, Finland in 1966.

Dhaka and New Delhi know very well that diplomatic parleys will not dent the simmering issue with the arrogant Beijing administration.

The hydropower dam over the mighty Brahmaputra River, China is opening another flashpoint with India, as Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has its party in power in the northeast state of Assam, where the river flows further south and enters Bangladesh delta.

The Brahmaputra River once it enters Bangladesh, at Bahadurabad in Jamalpur, gets a local name. The Jamuna River directly flows from the yawning Brahmaputra River, said researcher and writer Mohiuddin Ahmad.

The people along the Jamuna River people are critically dependent on the river for rejuvenating life in the monsoon for massive agricultural activities and navigation to millions in the floodplains.

China’s planned super dam on a major river that flows into northeast India threatens to turn into another in a series of flashpoints with New Delhi and Beijing and is likely to spark concerns in Bangladesh.

Brahma Chellaney is professor emeritus of strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi and a former adviser to India's National Security Council. He is the author of nine books, including ‘Water: Asia's New Battleground.’

China is unmatched as the world's hydro hegemony, with more large dams in service than every other country combined. Now it is building the world's first super dam, close to its heavily militarised frontier with India.

This megaproject, with a planned capacity of 60 gigawatts, would generate three times as much electricity as the Three Gorges Dam, now the world's largest hydropower plant.

China, though, has given few updates about the project's status since the National People's Congress approved it in March 2021.

China presented the super dam project for the approval of the National People's Congress only after it had built sufficient infrastructure to start transporting heavy equipment, materials and workers to the remote site.

Barely two months after parliament's approval nearly three years ago, Beijing announced that it had accomplished the feat of completing a "highway through the world's deepest canyon." That highway ends very close to the Indian border.

Opacity about the development of past projects has often served as cover for quiet action. Beijing has a record of keeping work on major dam projects on international rivers under wraps until the activity can no longer be hidden in commercially available satellite imagery.

The super dam is located in some of the world's most treacherous terrain, in an area long thought impassable. The hydrology and river morphology have not been fully explored, meaning research on the gigantic river is still under study by experts.

Bangladesh is trailing behind in conducting a study on the river Brahmaputra, said Ahmad, who had worked for Bangladesh Delta Plan (BDP) for 100 years.

To understand, the Brahmaputra, known to Tibetans as the Yarlung Tsangpo, drops almost 3,000 meters as it takes a sharp southerly turn from the Himalayas into India, with the world's highest-altitude major river descending through the globe's longest and steepest canyon.

Twice as deep as the Grand Canyon in the United States, the Brahmaputra gorge holds Asia's greatest untapped water reserves while the river's precipitous fall creates one of the greatest concentrations of river energy on Earth. The combination has acted as a powerful magnet for Chinese dam builders.

During the British Raj, several British expeditions and researchers failed to enter Tibet, now a territory of China, said Sanat Chakraborty, a journalist and researcher on the river morphology, life and history of rivers in northeast India.

Another journalist Samrat Chowdhury, an acclaimed Indian journalist who floated on the Brahmaputra for days in the northeast as well as in Bangladesh has written a book The Braided Rivers, which describes the life of boatmen, fishermen, the chars (shoals) people, vibrant trading in hats (market) and farmers. He described how millions of people are dependent on the river.

The behemoth dam, however, is the world's riskiest project as it is being built in a seismically active area. This makes it potentially a ticking water bomb for downstream communities in India and Bangladesh, writes Chellaney.

What is alarming, the southeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau is earthquake-prone because it sits on the geological fault line where the Indian and Eurasian plates collide.

The 2008 Sichuan earthquake, along the Tibetan Plateau's eastern rim, killed 87,000 people and drew international attention to the phenomenon of reservoir-triggered pressure from a dam's reservoir may have helped trigger the earthquake.

Some Chinese and American scientists drew a link between the quake and Sichuan's Zipingpu Dam, which came into service two years earlier near a seismic fault. They suggested that the weight of the several hundred million cubic meters of water impounded in the dam's reservoir could have triggered RTS or severe tectonic stresses.

But even without a quake, the new super dam could be a threat to downriver communities if torrential monsoon rains trigger flash floods in the Great Bend of the Brahmaputra. Barely a few years ago, some 400 million Chinese were put at risk after record flooding endangered the Three Gorges Dam.

In pursuing its controversial megaproject on the Brahmaputra, China is cloaking its construction activity to mute international reaction, alleges the Centre for Policy Research.

The Brahmaputra was one of the world's last undammed rivers until China began constructing a series of midsized dams on sections upstream from the famous canyon. With its dam building now moving close to border areas, China will in due course be able to leverage transboundary flows in its relations with rival India.

But the brunt of the environmental havoc that the megaproject is likely to wreak will be borne by Bangladesh, in the last stretch of the river. The environmental damage, however, is likely to extend up through Tibet, one of the world's most bio-diverse regions. In fact, with its super dam, China will be desecrating the canyon region which is a crucial Tibetan holy place.

A cardinal principle of water peace is transparency. The far-reaching strategic, environmental and inter-riparian implications of the largest dam ever conceived make it imperative that China be transparent. Only sustained international pressure can force Beijing to drop the veil of secrecy surrounding its project.

First published in The Daily Messenger, 15 February 2024

Saleem Samad an award-winning journalist is Deputy Editor of The Daily Messenger. An Ashoka Fellow and recipient of the Hellman-Hammett Award. Email: saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad

Sunday, January 28, 2024

India is not among the top 10 development partners of Bangladesh

SALEEM SAMAD

When India promptly felicitated Bangladesh for holding a "free and fair" 12th National Elections, the government leaders in Bangladesh were visibly excited.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated his Bangladesh counterpart Sheikh Hasina on her "victory for a historic fourth consecutive term in the Parliamentary elections" and also said, "We are committed to further strengthen our enduring and people-centric partnership with Bangladesh."

On the eve of the 75th Republic Day of India, a Bangladesh business daily Share Biz in Bangla publishes a damning first-page lead story "India is not among the top 10 development partners of Bangladesh".

The story was published in the byline of a reporter Ismail Ali writes, that since the liberation war of Bangladesh, India is one of the friendly countries in South Asia.

Having the longest international border, the country always stood by its neighbour at various times. Bangladesh's diplomatic and economic relations with India are also very deep.

However, there is a lopsided trade imbalance between the two countries. India is Bangladesh's second-largest source of imports.

It is also worth noting that every year Bangladesh's trade gap with India is widening rather than narrowing. In the Financial Year (FY) 2021-22, for example, Bangladesh imported commodities worth US$14.58 billion from India, while its exports to that country were merely US$1.8 billion.

Every day, thousands of Bangladesh nationals travel to India for medical treatment, been lagging business and pleasure. The two countries have shared the same history, culture and tradition for centuries during the Moghuls and British colonial era.

An estimated US $5 billion annually is remitted to India by documented and undocumented Indian expats working in Bangladesh. Similarly, thousands of economic migrants work in India as menial labourers.

Although India boasts of Bangladesh being a development partner and heightened bilateral relations, which both countries reiterate on all occasions.

The largest country in South Asia is not on the list of top 10 development partners of Bangladesh. India has been lagging in foreign economic assistance to Bangladesh since its independence.

India has provided nominal economic assistance to Bangladesh for 52 years from financial year (FY) 1971-72 to FY 2022-23. This information has emerged in the latest report of the Economic Relations Department (ERD), a government department which negotiates foreign economic assistance.

According to ERD's report, Bangladesh's foreign debt has reached US $92.367 billion in the 52 years since independence. At this time, Bangladesh received US $30.105 billion in various grants.

The total development assistance received is US $122.472 billion. Of this, $7.031 billion came from food aid, $10.908 billion from product aid and $104.533 billion from project aid.

The World Bank has provided the most assistance to Bangladesh among any single international multilateral donor agency, amounting to $28.446 billion. It is 23.23 per cent of the total development cooperation.

The international multilateral donor agency has donated $1.623 billion under this economic assistance. The remaining $26.823 billion was loaned by the World Bank.

Another, multi-lateral donor agency Asian Development Bank (ADB), which is in the second position on this list provided Bangladesh with $22.424 billion in development cooperation.

It is 18.31 per cent of development cooperation and provided only $382 million to Bangladesh. The remaining $22.42 billion was disbursed as loans.

The two international multi-lateral agencies have never provided food aid to Bangladesh. However, the two agencies have given some loans under product support.

Japan is third in assisting Bangladesh. In the last 52 years, the country has given $20.452 billion or 16.70 percent of foreign aid. Of the total aid, Japan has given $3.609 billion in grants and $16.843 billion in loans.

China is in the fourth position. The country has given $8.115 billion or 6.63 percent of aid to Bangladesh. Of the financial assistance, China has donated only $104 million.

Russia ranks fifth in the list of development partners.

The country has given $6.874 billion to Bangladesh in the last 52 years, which is 5.61 per cent of the total aid. Of the country's aid, only $35 million was in grants.

The United Nations and its bodies are in the sixth position among the list of development partners. The UN has given the entire amount of $4.795 billion or 3.92 percent was disbursed as a grant to Bangladesh.

The United States ranks seventh and has provided $3.856 billion or 3.15 percent of foreign aid.

The United Kingdom was followed by the USA and provided economic assistance worth $2.727 billion or 2.23 per cent.

Germany, ranked ninth and tenth respectively in development cooperation.

The country gave Bangladesh $2.251 billion or 1.84 percent and Canada gave $2.214 billion or 1.81 percent.

Apart from this, India has given 2.143 billion dollars or 1.75 percent of development assistance to Bangladesh. And the European Union (EU) has contributed 2.105 billion dollars or 1.72 per cent.

Contributions from other organisations and countries amount to less than two billion dollars. Among them, the Asian Infrastructure Bank (AIIB), UNICEF, Islamic Development Bank (IDB), Netherlands, France, Denmark and Saudi Arabia have development cooperation amounting to more than one billion dollars. The rest have less support than that.

According to ERD data, different countries have provided food aid to Bangladesh at different times. Basically, in the post-independence years, food aid was higher. This support has decreased in recent times.

Over 89 percent of food aid in 52 years was received in grants, amounting to $6.268 billion. The remaining $763 million, or about 11 per cent, was loan assistance.

Food aid has been given to Bangladesh the most by the United Nations and its various organizations, amounting to 2.143 billion dollars. The United States is next in food aid. The country has provided food aid to Bangladesh at various times under USAID, amounting to $1.804 billion.

About 52 percent or $5.651 billion of product assistance came from grants and 48 per cent or $5.257 billion was loans. Japan and the World Bank provided the most product assistance. And 18.186 billion dollars or 17.40 per cent of the project assistance came as grants. The remaining 86.347 billion dollars or 82.60 percent was loan assistance. World Bank, ADB and Japan are the top three lenders.

Finally, on 20 January, Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar in a microblogging Twitter (X) wrote: So glad to meet with my new Bangladesh counterpart Dr. Mohammed Hasan Mahmud in Kampala [Uganda at 19th Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) Summit] and further stated that "India-Bangladesh relations are growing from strength to strength."

First published in North East News, Guwahati, India, 28 January 2023

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad